The file download will begin after you complete the registration.
Downloader's Terms of Service | DMCA
Fix the footnotes
I’m having the same problem with the footnotes as 1bayguy. The starred notes actually are on the “blank” page, but they’re initially covered by the exit menu and the font is microscopic.
This electronic version has asterisks in the text that, when touched, go to a blank page. But the numbered footnotes seem to work. Doesn't anyone check this sort of thing before the book is released?
Great book one chapter too long
I enjoyed reading this book. It was entertaining and informative. I am surely biased and most of this book was confirming sentiments and feelings I already had. However, the clarity, depth and detail seemed to flounder in the chapter on terrorism and could have been dropped or more fully fleshed out. Though this may simply be a reflection of the current state of terrorism forecasting. Great read I would suggest to anyone.
'The Signal and the Noise...in 30 minutes'
Nate Silver's 'The Signal and the Noise' is an ambivalent approach to evaluating predictions in a variety of fields. For those pressed for time, the 30 minute expert summary helps to quickly grasp the fundamentals outlined in the bestselling book. The engaging manual forays into the reasons behind failed predictions and how the predictions can be improved by correcting inherent biases. We learn why statistical wizardry about the US housing bubble and US financial crisis failed. Using the example of target practice, the author explains the difference between confidence, precision and accuracy. In 'The Signal and the Noise' the statistician reinforces the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and subjective viewpoint while making predictions. Summary of the book has all the important information about forecasts in different areas ranging from economy to earthquakes, from weather to poker and health to stock market. Examining the world of predictions, Silver notes that predictions need not only science but a better understanding of probability and uncertainty as well. The author asserts that not knowing the unknown can hurt and the biggest failure regarding a difficult prediction is “no prediction at all.” Silver's insights into the paradox of prediction are an interesting read.
Great read and very helpful
Thanks to Nate, I have a much better understanding about the essential elements in forecasting.
I appreciate the message of not getting stuck in model land and trying out our predictions in the real world to make them better.